Iran has unveiled its new home made space program, much to the irritation of the US, which has described the development as “unfortunate”. With this ability comes a rocket which has a range of 1000 miles, adding some heat to the nuclear debate.
A new space center, in western Iran, will be home to the space program, which intends to launch a locally built satellite called “Omid”, or “Hope”, this year.
The technology carries with it some heavy political and diplomatic baggage. The nuclear issue with Iran is still far from resolved, and the rocket used for the space program has the ability to hit Israel, which will raise tensions considerably.
As
Space Travel.com reports, Iran doesn’t mind baiting the US with a bit of propaganda:
“"
We witness today that Iran has taken its first step in space very firmly, precisely and with awareness," declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he gave the order for the rocket's launch.
"The evil and dominant system's most important instrument is humiliating people and nations by making them think that they are incapable," he said.”
Ahmadinejad may have the subtlety of a rodeo on methedrine in a china shop, but diplomatically another raw nerve has been struck.
Again, the point that it’s OK for everyone else to have nuclear technology and space programs, but not Iran, is the focus.
This has been an argument which the US simply has not defused.
Ahmadinejad’s rhetoric may be insufferable, but as a simple point of international law, the right of sovereign nations to develop isn’t really something which can be simply dismissed as a matter of expedient policy.
The White House view, that the launch would simply further isolate Iran, unfortunately doesn’t really stack up.
Regionally, the problem is that Iran has set itself up as the Middle East patron of anti-American and anti-Israeli interests. There’s an image to maintain, however impractical and probably ultimately self-obstructive it may be.
The confrontationist approach hasn’t worked for the US, either. In fact, it may have missed the target completely. So far from “isolating” Iran, it may have added some value to Iran’s anti-American status, and some incentive to take the clash to higher levels.
The nightmare scenario is:
1. Iran develops nuclear weapons.
2. Israel attacks Iranian nuclear capabilities. (Which, despite rumors, they’re perfectly capable of doing, and have said they will do.)
3. Regional war breaks out, dragging in US.
4. War spreads, creating a messy, multi level series of conflicts which is effectively World War 3.
One of the key requirements for this scenario is any sort of plausible ability of Iran to attack Israel. The ballistic missile technology required is inherent in rocket technology for a space program.
So this bit of information isn't going to make anyone relax:
“
State television broadcast pictures of the launch of the rocket, which is dubbed Kavoshgar-1 but bore a close resemblance to Iran's longer-range missile Shahab-3.
The Shahab-3 has a range of 1,300 to 1,600 kilometres (800 to 1,000 miles), enough to put Tehran's arch regional foe Israel and US bases in the Gulf within reach.”
Meaning this is a capability which was previously known, but wasn't at this level of advancement. Space flight is a lot more technically difficult than blazing away at countries with unguided missiles like Scuds.
Not stated in the article, but also possible, is that Iran could launch its own military satellites, giving early warning of US and/or Israeli military moves. That would be very salable information, and add a few degrees of difficulty to US military operations, globally, and particularly in the Middle East.
Quite a lot of the necessary surveillance technology is available “off the shelf” from military manufacturers, many of whom are out of reach of US law. This sort of technology doesn’t have to be fancy, just functional.
If that scenario applies, it could at the very least spark a Middle East arms race, and require ongoing commitment of US strategic capacity above and beyond current levels.
In this case, the threat is more dangerous than any fact. An unknown which needs watching is harder to deal with than a known threat.
If the US intends to beat Iran’s strategy, it can’t be done with a campaign of public bluster and visible frustration. A battle of press releases won’t achieve anything, and hasn’t.
