The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50 years, one of the world's leading agricultural researchers said.
An
editorial in the Guardian: Beijing states that the risk of food riots and malnutrition will grow significantly within the next two years because the global supply of grain is coming under increased pressure.
Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute referred to the recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstration in India as harbingers of what is to come.
China and India, for example, are fast growing nations that have developing biofuel programs and when these programs are combined with similar projects in the United States and the European Union the pressure that is placed upon the food supply system increases.
For decades the yields of wheat, rice, corn, soya and dairy products have expanded while prices fell, however, the past year has witnessed a sharp increase in the prices of these same food commodities.
"Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain and of rice, wheat and maize are down at levels not seen since the early 80s," said von Braun, whose organization is the world's largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists and policy experts.
The main reason countries have been able to avoid major crisis is that they have drawn on national stocks. This is likely to come to an end soon as China, for example, has run down its national supplies.
"Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international markets to bid up prices to unusual levels," von Braun warned ahead of a speech on Tuesday to the institute's annual general meeting in Beijing.
China’s growth in the manufacturing sector has given it huge foreign exchange reserves that could enable them to purchase the global food supply several times over.
China has already felt the effects of food shortages; three shoppers died last month in a stampede at a supermarket in Chongqing that was offering cheap rapeseed oil.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has made the fight against food price rises one of his government's priorities; but this may be a losing battle.
The wealth of the Chinese consumer has grown over the first nine months of the year and urbanization and globalization has changed their diet.
Last October, the government announced pork prices were up more than 50 percent, vegetables 30 percent and cooking oil 34 percent compared with the year before.
Similar problems are emerging around the globe. For the citizens of wealthy nations it may mean a few more cents for breakfast cereal in the short term and a slightly higher cost for toys, clothes and other China-made goods.
The prospects for the poorer nations are considerable more dire.
For example, Bangladesh has had to ask for half a million tonnes of food aid; he price of cooking oil, of which it imports 1.2 million tonnes a year, has almost tripled in the past two years because it is now valued as an alternative to diesel oil.
What makes this scenario even more alarming is that their main staple of rice is hard to buy at any price because India, Vietnam and Ukraine have cut exports.
"The first sign was the tortilla riot in Mexico city, where 70,000 took to the streets. I think that was only the beginning -- there will be more," von Braun said. "For a year or two countries can stabilize with stocks. But the risk comes in the next 12 to 24 months. The countries that cannot afford to buy will be the losers, while those with huge foreign exchange reserves will bid up the world market."
Von Braun is calling on the European Union to reconsider biofuel policies, provide more aid to poor nations, keep markets open and boost production.
